ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN
Keywords:
Unemployment rate, econometric models, Uzbekistan economy, multiple regression, ARIMA, panel data, logistic regression, VAR, GDP growth, inflation, education, FDI, labor market, structural transformation, migration effects.Abstract
Unemployment represents a critical socioeconomic challenge in emerging economies like Uzbekistan, influenced by factors such as economic growth, inflation, education levels, foreign direct investment (FDI), and labor market dynamics. This article reviews key econometric models—including multiple regression, time-series ARIMA, panel data fixed effects, logistic regression, and vector autoregression (VAR)—for evaluating unemployment determinants. Standardized variables like GDP growth, CPI inflation, tertiary education enrollment, and net FDI inflows are examined, alongside mechanisms such as structural transformation and migration effects. Empirical evidence from Uzbekistan (2015–2025) highlights 10–18% unemployment reduction potential through targeted policies like skill enhancement and investment promotion. Limitations include data constraints; future integrations with machine learning are discussed for improved forecasting.
References
1. Shomurodov, Sh., & Yang, J. (2021). Analysing the factors effecting on unemployment rate and recent trends in labour market of Uzbekistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 2(2), 63–405. https://www.allstudyjournal.com/article/120/2-2-63-405.pdf
2. Kakhkharov, J. (2019). International Migration and Household Well-Being: Evidence from Uzbekistan. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8910. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/615721561125387061/pdf/international-migration-and-household-well-being-evidence-from-uzbekistan.pdf
3. Abdullaev, Z. (2023). The Effects of Investment Climate Reforms on Uzbekistan's Economic Indicators. InterJournal, [volume/issue not specified]. https://interjournal.uz/index.php/journals/article/download/269/248/736
4. Ayubjonov, A. H. (2023). Toshkent viloyatida ishsizlik darajasini ekonometrik baholash va prognozlash. Oriens: Ilmiy-anjuman materiallari, [issue not specified], 190-198. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10532616
5. UNDP Uzbekistan. (2023). Support and Reintegration of Labor Repatriates in Uzbekistan: Challenges and Prospects. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-01/Migrant%20Survey%20Report_Final_UNDP.docx_.pdf
6. World Bank. (2019). Growth and Job Creation in Uzbekistan — An In-Depth Diagnostic. World Bank Group. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/130581560953053964/pdf/Growth-and-Job-Creation-in-Uzbekistan-A-In-depth-Diagnostic.pdf
7. ILO. (2025). Uzbekistan Country Profile. ILOSTAT. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/country-profiles/uzb
8. Kakhkharov, J. (2019). Labor Migration From Uzbekistan: a Family and Community Promoted Big Bang. PMC, PMC8276684. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8276684
9. OECD. (2025). Trends and impacts of FDI in Uzbekistan: Roadmap for Sustainable Investment Policy Reforms in Uzbekistan. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/20865f29-en
10. Dubovyk, O., et al. (2012). Spatio-temporal analyses of cropland degradation in the irrigated lowlands of Uzbekistan using remote-sensing and logistic regression modeling. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 185(5), 4051-4065. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3641299/
11. State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan. (2025). Labor Market Indicators. Tashkent. (Official data source, no direct DOI; access via stat.uz or reports).
